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YM COLUMN ARCHIVE　

April 8, 2009

A big fuss on April 5

I was at Shin-Chitose Air Port at 11:50am on that day for the 12:05pm flight to Haneda Air Port. Then there came a call to my cell phone from a reporter A of The A Shimbun (newspaper).

A:It’s reported North Korea lifted off at 11:20.

YM:Is that so? And then?

A:Don’t know in details yet.

YM:Naturally North Korea must announce they have succeeded in launching a satellite.

A:They haven’t said that much yet.

YM:Well, I’ll get onboard from now…..

Upon arriving at Haneda, there was a call from B reporter of B press when I was about to buy a bus ticket to Tama Plaza.

B:The first stage seemed to have fallen on North Korea’s expected seawaters.

YM:How about the second stage?

B:The second seemed to have fallen out of the advance-noticed area; that is short of the target.

YM:Is that right? It must be either of two reasons: one, energy power of the second was less than planned or two, it went up too high on its trajectory.

B:Will that explain? You think it’s now a satellite?

YM:I can hardly answer that.

B:I would imagine so. Sorry. I might call you again.

YM:Please do. Now I’ll get on a bus…..

No sooner than I got off bus, a call came this time from C reporter of C newspaper as if he was keeping his eyes on me.

C:North Korea officially announced they succeeded in putting it on the orbit.

YM:Is that right?

C:Looks like flying with playing tune of “Hail! Kim II-Sung!” Can we believe that?

YM:I’m not sure. They’re convicted of a false announcement before. So, better wait for the announcement of NORAD (North American Aerospace Command). Did the North announce some figures on the orbit?

C:No, not yet.

YM:Well then, I take a walk to the station on Den-entoshi line….

As walking about 300 meters by carrying a suitcase bag with casters, another call to my cell phone from D reporter of D press.

D:North Korea announced about the orbit!

YM:Really? How about the orbit?

D:They say it’s a period of one hour and forty-four minutes. It looks like highly credible for their disclosing actual number. What do you think?

YM:A man like you easily believing may take it credible but a man like me suspicious about anything will never believe only announcement of the party concerned. How about wait for announcement by NORAD?

D:Can we absolutely believe in NORAD?

YM:Judging from the past record, I think we can believe, at least, its radar technology. Now, I’ll take a train on Den-entoshi line…..

Shortly before arriving at Minami-Machida station by an express on Den-entoshi line, a call came to my cell phone from E reporter of E Shimbun.

YM:Just a minute please, I’m getting off a train. OK, I’m alright now.

E:New information on the orbit coming in!

YM:Wait a second. I’ll write it down.

E:Orbit inclination: 40.6 degrees, Altitude of perigee: 490km, Height of apogee: 1,426km, Orbital period: 104 minutes and 20 seconds.

YM:What is a latitude of the launch site at Musudan-ri?

E:Don’t know. I don’t have a map here.

YM:I’ll be home soon. Will you give me a call about 30 minutes later?

E:I will. We’ll talk then.

Having come home, I checked right away a geographical location of Musudan-ri and did some calculation by a calculator, just when there was a call again from Mr. E.

E:Are you home now?

YM:Yes, I’m OK now. The launch site of Musudan-ri is located at about the latitude 40.8 degrees, and so if they launched it precisely eastward, the number of the latitude of the launch site reflects the angle of inclination of the orbit on which the satellite was placed. North Korean information of orbit inclination makes sense.

E:How about the height of the orbit?

YM:If perigee and apogee are determined, orbital period is automatically determined. Calculation of perigee and apogee justifies consistency with orbital period. Well, this kind of calculation can be easily done on a desk. Now then, I’m getting little hungry now so I’ll go out for a bite on noodle soba…..

A noodle shop near my house. It’s really good and how. While waiting for an extra-large noodle that I ordered, there came a phone call to my cell phone from F reporter of F press.

F:NORAD said the second stage and entire upper structure fell on Pacific. NORAD announced no object whatsoever is found on the orbit.

YM:I see. They initially announced of testing missile launch and then revised the program to disguise the plan to satellite launch in facing severe international criticism. This time their failure proved launching a satellite is not just that easy.

These last words of mine were my personal presumption to have answered the questions from press companies on April 3. In truth, I must tell you that I had a feeling “things might go well by chance” because I don’t know how much technological assistances were given from Russia and China to North Korea. Below are my miscellaneous thoughts.

Was it really mounted with the third stage and a satellite? If they were, they should have failed either in separation of the second and third or failed in ignition of the third, even though they succeeded in separation, which I’m very much concerned of.

Is it possibly presumed that North Korean engineers were compelled to the situation but to report, “the satellite was successfully put on the orbit” because if they should have failed, it is fatally unavoidable for them to be got fired? I have a free imagination that in North Korea there are only a few who know the fact satellite was not put on the orbit.

In reality, the engineers must have been fully satisfied with the result only if the first and second stages fell on their planned area, because previous attempt ended up in such a disaster. I firmly believe that even in North Korea there must be such persons who are engaged in space development in dreaming future space exploration by her own hand like Von Braun and others. Some day in future I really want to get knee to knee with them in discussing space problems.

Anyway, after a big fuss the matter was settled.

I thought the case was closed but in fact it continued on the following days of 6th and 7th. What surprised me most was the image of launching at Musudan-ri taken by an American satellite, whose information was brought to me by the reporter of S press on 7th (Tue). Judging from the source of the image, either the satellite “QuickBird” or “World View” must have taken a picture, whose image was so clearly taken of the smoke traces immediately after the launch at very high resolution of probably a few tens of centimeters.

Free imaginations without proof at all came to my mind; after all North Korea did not mount the third stage and a satellite, which naturally did not need separation of the second and third stages; if so, it is quite natural that the second and upper structure fell on the Pacific as one piece; North Korean engineers must have been very happy only with the fact that they successfully launched the first and the second stages; high officials of North Korean government must be chuckling with satisfaction at the world-wide troublesome confusions. We all have heard the tune of a big fuss for past couple of days.

I welcome your opinions on this column to the following E-mail address.
matogawa@planetary.or.jp

(Translated by The Planetary Society of Japan)